The probability of your winning the lottery

If you have never dreamed in your life of getting rich unexpectedly, you will not be able to understand the whole idea behind this article. In particular, the logic of people who play casinos and the lottery. Quite a lot of people by the word “get rich” mean winning the lottery or casino with their incredible jackpots. In this article, we will consider the lottery – their popularity is only growing from year to year (and PowerBall in the USA is a clear confirmation of this) and there are more and more dreamers.

Yes, most of the buyers realize that the chances of winning are not so great, however, at the same time, not everyone who likes this kind of gambling entertainment does not realize how insignificant the probability of winning and getting jackpot. But the factor that no one at all ever thinks about is the psychological problems that arise for those who want to catch their luck by the tail, turning it into a fanatical hobby.

Actually, the question arises – what are these people guided by, what exactly they can count on and what, in some cases, the pursuit of easy lottery money leads to.

Optimism and nothing else

Going a little deeper into the depths of modern psychology, we note that it contains the so-called term “cognitive distortion” – thus, psychologists designate irrational human behavior in a number of situations. Exactly excessive optimism, in fact, in some cases makes people act contrary to common sense.

So, many people think that only good things await them in the lottery or in the casino. “This will not happen to me” – do you agree, familiar? Indeed, many of us think that the chances of negative consequences from one or the other actions are much lower for him personally than for other people. They say that the average indicators for diseases and other troubles do not apply to them and they are an exception.

Projecting the situation on the lottery – almost every keen gambler is sure that sooner or later he will definitely get lucky, despite the discouraging small chances. Nobody hides the statistics, and everyone really understands that most of the players who buy lottery tickets never win serious money.

Actually, the same optimistic bias is described above that makes you spend money on tickets week after week, throwing, subsequently, into the trash can the very pieces of paper that have brought so many disappointments.

What are the chances of success?

Psychologists say that most people simply cannot assess the probability of certain events that, according to statistics, happen very rarely. At one time, a noteworthy experiment was conducted by Daniel Kahneman, a famous psychologist. In his research, he planned to reveal the irrationality of decision making when it comes to incidents with a minimum probability of occurrence.

So, a group of people took part in the experiment. They were tourists who were traveling from the United States to Europe, and they were offered 2 types of insurance. The first group was asked to purchase insurance that guarantees payment in case of death due to a terrorist attack. The remaining people were offered insurance, which provides for payments to the loved ones of the deceased for any reason. The package prices were identical.

Despite the obvious disadvantage of the conditions for the first group, these people bought insurance more actively, since the chances of falling victim to terrorists are minimal, however, nevertheless, emotions prevailed over reason and very few people assessed the chances of this or that event.

A person who plays the lottery also has a similar thinking. The chances of winning are very small, however, at the same time, the total amount of the jackpot offered by the organizer has the same effect as the terrorist attack described above. All these zeros in the column stimulate the gambler to try his luck.

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